The Republican Party is a mess right now, but whether they are Business RNC (like Mitch and Co) or Trump Authoritarian RNC (Like Cruz etc) the RNC stand united on one strategy. The same strategy that successfully soured enough voters on Obama Era presidency to put Trump in office.
Sabotage everything. Blame the DNC.
This strategy depends on one very important lie. One that is thinner now than it was under Obama. “The Democrats control Congress”. If they can make the voter believe this is true, then it’s easy to point the finger and say… “If the DNC controlled congress, why didn’t they send you relief checks like they promised?” or “Why didn’t the DNC raise minimum wage when they had the chance?”.
These arguments are currently being made and based on the memes and posts I’ve seen from inside my own social media progressive bubble. They are working.
The problem is:
Democrats DON’T control congress
Congress is complicated (lies are easier to tell if the truth requires explanation and nuance), but the math is pretty simple. The DNC truly holds the House (they have for 2+ years so far). But the House is nothing without a Senate vote, and while the DNC has a thin majority on paper (50v50 + Tie Breaker) — In practice, they don’t hold the Senate. Because:
- Every RNC Senator will oppose every legislation that even smells like it would make Biden look good (see strategy above, and evidence from 8 years of Obama)
- The filibuster is in place for almost every type of bill, and so even if the DNC can get a few token RNC supporters (Romney maybe?), they won’t get 10 (the number needed to pass the filibuster line).
- For all things that could be won with a simple majority (including removing the filibuster, and the 1.9T COVID relief budget reconciliation) — If there is anything progressive there are at least 3 “DNC” Senators who are from Republican states who will vote with the Republicans.
While I have my fingers crossed for a miracle on the Senate vote for the COVID bill (Every DNC senator including Manchin and the other Independents) will vote to pass this needed bill. I have little faith. What I do predict will happen, is that one or two of the “DNC” senators will defect, provide some lie about why, and then the RNC and progressives will turn their ire on Joe Biden and the Democrats, who overwhelmingly and genuinely want this bill to pass.
And it will work. Almost every progressive goal of this administration will fail. Not because the majority of Democrats don’t want it to, but because every vote will have a united front of republicans voting against it.
Unless… Top Democrat leadership stops trying to get Kudos for “winning” the Senate, and instead works to change the narrative to one of trying to one of Republican obstructionism (with more success than they have been). The party needs to be singularly focused (In a way that only the RNC has proven capable of thus far) in pointing the blame squarely at those actually responsible. And as progressives we can help, by holding the line, and pointing our and “feedback” and any senator who breaks with the line, and every republican senator who refuses to support bills that their constituency overwhelmingly support.
We need to switch back into the mindset that victory has not yet been achieved. Because it has not.
